Methodology

Margins and swing

A state’s margin is the winner’s vote share minus the runner-up’s, in percentage points. Swing between two elections is the change in the Republican-minus-Democratic margin; a positive swing is toward the Republican ticket and a negative swing toward the Democratic ticket.

Percentages follow the source: The American Presidency Project excludes over- and under-votes from the total, which slightly raises every candidate’s share.

Winners

A state’s winner is the candidate who received its electoral votes. In early elections where legislatures chose electors, the page shows the note printed by the source instead of a popular vote.

People’s Vote and polls

The People’s Vote and other polls are open website polls. Anyone can respond, respondents choose themselves, and the results are not weighted. They are not representative of any population and are not a prediction. A state’s split is shown only once it has enough responses (set in the admin), and responses are limited by browser, account and network to reduce repeat voting, which can never be fully prevented.