Tipping-point states
The state that delivered the 270th electoral vote in each election, and how it compared with the nation.
Download CSV| Year | Tipping-point state | State | Nation | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Pennsylvania | R+1.7 | R+1.5 | R+0.2 |
| 2020 | Wisconsin | D+0.6 | D+4.5 | R+3.8 |
| 2016 | Wisconsin | R+0.8 | D+2.0 | R+2.8 |
| 2012 | Colorado | D+5.4 | D+3.9 | D+1.5 |
| 2008 | Iowa | D+9.5 | D+7.2 | D+2.3 |
| 2004 | Ohio | R+2.1 | R+2.4 | D+0.3 |
| 2000 | Florida | Even | D+0.5 | R+0.5 |
| 1996 | Pennsylvania | D+9.2 | D+8.5 | D+0.7 |
| 1992 | Tennessee | D+4.7 | D+5.6 | R+0.9 |
| 1988 | Michigan | R+7.9 | R+7.8 | R+0.1 |
| 1984 | Michigan | R+19.0 | R+18.2 | R+0.8 |
| 1980 | Illinois | R+7.9 | R+9.7 | D+1.8 |
| 1976 | Wisconsin | D+1.7 | D+2.1 | R+0.4 |
| 1972 | Ohio | R+21.6 | R+23.2 | D+1.6 |
| 1968 | Ohio | R+2.3 | R+0.7 | R+1.6 |
| 1964 | Washington | D+24.6 | D+22.6 | D+2.0 |
| 1960 | Missouri | D+0.5 | D+0.2 | D+0.3 |
| 1956 | Florida | R+14.5 | R+15.4 | D+0.9 |
| 1952 | Michigan | R+11.5 | R+10.5 | R+1.0 |
| 1948 | California | D+0.4 | D+4.4 | R+4.0 |
| 1944 | New York | D+5.0 | D+7.5 | R+2.5 |
| 1940 | Pennsylvania | D+6.9 | D+9.9 | R+3.0 |
| 1936 | Ohio | D+20.6 | D+24.3 | R+3.8 |
| 1932 | Iowa | D+17.7 | D+17.8 | R+0.1 |
| 1928 | Illinois | R+14.7 | R+17.4 | D+2.8 |
| 1924 | New York | R+26.6 | R+25.2 | R+1.4 |
| 1920 | Rhode Island | R+31.2 | R+26.2 | R+5.0 |
| 1916 | California | D+0.3 | D+3.1 | R+2.8 |
| 1912 | Delaware | D+13.6 | D+18.6 | R+5.0 |
| 1908 | West Virginia | R+10.3 | R+8.6 | R+1.7 |
| 1904 | New Jersey | R+18.6 | R+18.8 | D+0.2 |
| 1900 | Illinois | R+8.4 | R+6.2 | R+2.2 |
| 1896 | Ohio | R+5.0 | R+5.3 | D+0.3 |
| 1892 | Illinois | D+3.1 | D+3.0 | D+0.1 |
| 1888 | New York | R+1.1 | D+0.8 | R+1.9 |
| 1884 | New York | D+0.1 | D+0.7 | R+0.6 |
| 1880 | New York | R+1.9 | R+0.1 | R+1.8 |
| 1872 | Illinois | R+13.3 | R+11.8 | R+1.5 |
| 1868 | North Carolina | R+6.8 | R+5.4 | R+1.4 |
| 1864 | Illinois | R+8.8 | R+10.2 | D+1.4 |
| 1860 | New York | R+7.4 | R+10.4 | D+3.0 |
| 1856 | Indiana | D+10.3 | D+12.2 | R+1.9 |
Bias: how much more Republican (R+) or Democratic (D+) the tipping-point state was than the national popular vote. Two-party elections from 1856; Maine and Nebraska counted as whole states.
More insights
- Closest state results
- Biggest state landslides
- Popular vote vs Electoral College
- Bellwether states
- States that flipped
- Longest party streaks
- Third-party high-water marks
- Votes cast over time
- Electoral vote vs popular vote
Official results As published by The American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara) and the state documents it links. How we use this data