Swing states: the battlegrounds for 2028
States rated by how they actually voted in 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024. A state is a toss-up if its last margin was under 3 points, or under 5 points after changing party in that span; lean under 8, likely under 15, otherwise safe. This is a reading of past results, not a forecast.
Download CSV- Toss-up states
- 670 electoral votes
- Safe + likely D
- 176electoral votes
- Safe + likely R
- 219electoral votes
- Tipping point 2024
- PennsylvaniaR+1.7
Toss-up states
| State | EV | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 | Average | Shift since 2012 | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 10 | D+6.8 | R+0.8 | D+0.6 | R+0.9 | D+1.5 | R+7.7 | Toss-up |
| Michigan | 15 | D+9.5 | R+0.2 | D+2.8 | R+1.4 | D+2.7 | R+10.9 | Toss-up |
| Pennsylvania | 19 | D+5.4 | R+0.7 | D+1.2 | R+1.7 | D+1.0 | R+7.1 | Toss-up |
| Georgia | 16 | R+7.8 | R+5.2 | D+0.2 | R+2.2 | R+3.7 | D+5.6 | Toss-up |
| New Hampshire | 4 | D+5.6 | D+0.4 | D+7.4 | D+2.8 | D+4.0 | R+2.8 | Toss-up |
| Nevada | 6 | D+6.7 | D+2.4 | D+2.4 | R+3.1 | D+2.1 | R+9.8 | Toss-up |
Leaning states
| State | EV | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 | Average | Shift since 2012 | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 16 | R+2.0 | R+3.7 | R+1.3 | R+3.2 | R+2.6 | R+1.2 | Lean R |
| Minnesota | 10 | D+7.7 | D+1.5 | D+7.1 | D+4.2 | D+5.1 | R+3.5 | Lean D |
| Arizona | 11 | R+9.1 | R+3.5 | D+0.3 | R+5.5 | R+4.5 | D+3.5 | Lean R |
| Virginia | 13 | D+3.9 | D+5.3 | D+10.1 | D+5.8 | D+6.3 | D+1.9 | Lean D |
| New Jersey | 14 | D+17.7 | D+14.1 | D+15.9 | D+5.9 | D+13.4 | R+11.8 | Lean D |
| New Mexico | 5 | D+10.2 | D+8.2 | D+10.8 | D+6.0 | D+8.8 | R+4.2 | Lean D |
| Maine | 4 | D+15.3 | D+3.0 | D+9.1 | D+6.9 | D+8.6 | R+8.4 | Lean D |
Likely states
| State | EV | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 | Average | Shift since 2012 | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 19 | D+16.9 | D+17.1 | D+17.0 | D+10.9 | D+15.5 | R+6.0 | Likely D |
| Colorado | 10 | D+5.4 | D+4.9 | D+13.5 | D+11.0 | D+8.7 | D+5.6 | Likely D |
| Ohio | 17 | D+3.0 | R+8.1 | R+8.0 | R+11.2 | R+6.1 | R+14.2 | Likely R |
| New York | 28 | D+28.1 | D+22.3 | D+23.1 | D+12.6 | D+21.5 | R+15.5 | Likely D |
| Florida | 30 | D+0.9 | R+1.2 | R+3.4 | R+13.1 | R+4.2 | R+14.0 | Likely R |
| Alaska | 3 | R+14.0 | R+14.7 | R+10.1 | R+13.1 | R+13.0 | D+0.9 | Likely R |
| Iowa | 6 | D+5.8 | R+9.4 | R+8.2 | R+13.2 | R+6.3 | R+19.0 | Likely R |
| Texas | 40 | R+15.8 | R+9.0 | R+5.6 | R+13.7 | R+11.0 | D+2.1 | Likely R |
| Rhode Island | 4 | D+27.5 | D+15.5 | D+20.8 | D+13.8 | D+19.4 | R+13.7 | Likely D |
| Oregon | 8 | D+12.1 | D+11.0 | D+16.1 | D+14.3 | D+13.4 | D+2.2 | Likely D |
| Connecticut | 7 | D+17.3 | D+13.6 | D+20.0 | D+14.5 | D+16.4 | R+2.8 | Likely D |
| Delaware | 3 | D+18.6 | D+11.4 | D+19.0 | D+14.7 | D+16.0 | R+3.9 | Likely D |
Safe states
Tipping-point state in every election since 1960
Line the states up from the winner’s strongest to weakest; the tipping-point state is the one that pushes the winner past a majority of electoral votes. Its margin is the real winning margin in the Electoral College. Back to 1856
| Election | Tipping-point state | State margin | National popular vote | Electoral College bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Pennsylvania | R+1.7 | R+1.5 | R+0.2 |
| 2020 | Wisconsin | D+0.6 | D+4.5 | R+3.8 |
| 2016 | Wisconsin | R+0.8 | D+2.0 | R+2.8 |
| 2012 | Colorado | D+5.4 | D+3.9 | D+1.5 |
| 2008 | Iowa | D+9.5 | D+7.2 | D+2.3 |
| 2004 | Ohio | R+2.1 | R+2.4 | D+0.3 |
| 2000 | Florida | Even | D+0.5 | R+0.5 |
| 1996 | Pennsylvania | D+9.2 | D+8.5 | D+0.7 |
| 1992 | Tennessee | D+4.7 | D+5.6 | R+0.9 |
| 1988 | Michigan | R+7.9 | R+7.8 | R+0.1 |
| 1984 | Michigan | R+19.0 | R+18.2 | R+0.8 |
| 1980 | Illinois | R+7.9 | R+9.7 | D+1.8 |
| 1976 | Wisconsin | D+1.7 | D+2.1 | R+0.4 |
| 1972 | Ohio | R+21.6 | R+23.2 | D+1.6 |
| 1968 | Ohio | R+2.3 | R+0.7 | R+1.6 |
| 1964 | Washington | D+24.6 | D+22.6 | D+2.0 |
| 1960 | Missouri | D+0.5 | D+0.2 | D+0.3 |
Electoral College bias: how much more Republican (R+) or Democratic (D+) the tipping-point state was than the nation. Maine and Nebraska are counted as whole states.
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Official results As published by The American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara) and the state documents it links. How we use this data